The Mkenya Daima initiative in conjunction with South Consulting hosted a meeting to discuss possible scenarios and implications of Kenya’s General Elections in August. The meeting was held at Villa Rosa Kempinski, Nairobi on 31^st May 2022.

The meeting, which was led by Dr. Vimal Shah – Chair, Mkenya Daima Initiative and Prof. Karuti Kanyinga – Director of the Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi, saw a representation of all groups including religious leaders, civil society, youth and the business community.

Also present during the event were Mkenya Daima Steering Committee members including Ms. Flora Mutahi – Chair, KEPSA; Mr. Suba Churchill – Coordinator, National Civil Society Congress; Mr. Mucai Kunyiha – KEPSA Director & Chair, Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM); Mr. Declan Gavin – member Mkenya Daima Steering Committee; Ms. Martha Cheruto – KEPSA Deputy CEO – Foundation among others.

While presenting an ooverview of the operating environment of the 2022 electoral politics, Prof. Kanyinga outlined the following:

• Historical imbalances and grievances pegged on ethnic structures, numbers, and the electoral system
• Unstable power arrangements due to erratic elitist interests, pacts, and bargains currently driving politics in Kenya. This has in turn led to mistrust among Kenyans and marked political patronage that has continuously undermined the performance of institutions
• Economic challenges largely contributed by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war leading to an increase in the rate of unemployment and a high cost of living.

Dr. Kanyinga recognized that the current operating environment led to new discoveries such as; for the first time the election was more focused on the economy as witnessed in both leading coalitions’ campaign messaging. He highlighted that the Judiciary was enjoying a significant public trust due to its latest rulings on constitutional matters.

However, looking on the not-so-positive side, the Professor noted that there was minimal attention to governance issues due to the absence of civic education and a less aggressive campaign to end institutional corruption as has been in the past. 

In the key findings, the following was outlined:

• Unemployment was trending at the top with a response rate of 22%, followed closely by a high cost of living at 20% and corruption at 14% as the most serious problems facing Kenyans. The findings, therefore, inform the critical issues that the population sampled wanted to be addressed by presidential aspirants.
• A majority (70%) of the respondents targeted indicated that they would vote in the 2022 national elections, with Northern Kenya having the lowest number of respondents certain will vote.
• From the observations deduced, it is therefore assumed that there was a high probability that the 2022 presidential election would be a close call and most likely majority of Kenyans will adopt an accept and move on attitude to make peace and quickly move to form new alliances.

In conclusion, Professor Karuti urged the private sector to keep having continuous dialogue and monitoring by identifying and engaging influential informal actors, media and religious leaders.

On his part, Dr. Vimal Shah reiterated the commitment of the private sector to adopt a more proactive approach to empowering more Kenyans for peace.

Ms. Flora Mutahi urged both the public and private sectors to keep mapping and understanding their operating environment to ensure business continuity during and after elections to reduce their exposure.